Sam Altman, the Chief Executive of OpenAI, recently stepped down from his role due to undisclosed reasons. While the exact circumstances surrounding his departure remain unknown, the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has witnessed a surge in bets as users speculate on the possible reasons and future plans of Altman.
One of the most active markets on Polymarket questions whether Altman will return as CEO by the end of the year. As of now, the “Yes” shares are trading at 10 cents, reflecting a 10% probability. Interestingly, this sentiment shifted when Bloomberg reported that former Twitch boss Emmet Shear had been appointed to the role, causing a change in trading dynamics.
Another contract on Polymarket focuses on the likelihood of Altman facing criminal charges by November 30. The current trading value for the “Yes” outcome is at 1 cent. According to an Axios report citing a leaked memo, Altman’s departure was not due to any form of misconduct or issues related to the company’s financial, business, safety, or security/privacy practices.
Furthermore, Polymarket users are also speculating on whether Altman will establish a new company by November 24, with the “Yes” shares currently trading at 24 cents. Other prediction contracts include whether Altman will file a lawsuit against OpenAI, and if Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist, will remain with the company until January 1. These contracts have driven liquidity of over $250,000 across eight different predictions.
Some reports suggest that Sutskever played a crucial role in Altman’s departure. In the meantime, the AI-themed token market experienced a rally after Elon Musk announced his stake in XAI, and the corporate drama within OpenAI intrigued traders.
As the speculation continues and more information emerges, Polymarket provides a platform for individuals interested in participating in prediction markets to engage in informed betting based on their perceptions of Altman’s future endeavors.